Paul Kelly: 'Long War' has just begun

AUSTRALIA'S ambassador to the US, Dennis Richardson, warns that Democrats and Republicans alike believe the war on terrorism is just beginning and that the legacy of the 9/11 attacks will shape American politics for the next generation.
In an interview with The Australian, the former director-general of ASIO says that US forces will remain in Iraq for some time.

He warned that "no major US presidential candidate from either party" was calling for a complete US troop withdrawal. He said the extent of common views between Democrats and Republicans was greater than realised in Australia.

"You would be looking at a continuation of anywhere between 40,000 to 80,000 US military personnel in Iraq well into 2008 and into 2009," Mr Richardson said.

"Too many people assume that come January 2009, and the Bush presidency ends, the world is going to change all of a sudden. A lot won't change. And that tends to be glossed over."

Asked about the war on terrorism, Mr Richardson said: "In terms of how Americans think the Long War's going, I think they believe they're not yet 10 per cent through it. In terms of a conflict lasting for a generation or more, you don't get a lot of difference across the political spectrum. The political differences are over the approach to the Long War."

Mr Richardson's remarks highlight that under any new Democratic president the "Long War" against terrorism will continue, though its tactics and approach may change.

"The basic reference point for the US for a long time to come will be 9/11," he said. "A generation of US political leaders, at least, will have 9/11 as their reference point. Anyone assuming this reference point is going to disappear when President Bush goes is not taking a close interest in the US debate."

Mr Richardson strongly played down suggestions of a US military strike on Iran, attributing such reports to a misreading of the Bush administration.

"The Bush administration is absolutely committed to a diplomatic option (on Iran)," he said. Asked if this would continue, he replied, "Yes, for the foreseeable future".

Mr Richardson said that recent comments by the Bush administration keeping the military option on the table on Iran were "not controversial" and were something that "Democratic presidential candidates would agree with". These remarks "did not mean the administration was pursuing a military option".

"The US is working hard with its European allies through the Security Council to stop this (a nuclear-armed Iran) happening," he said.

With Australia about to commit fresh forces to Afghanistan, Mr Richardson said the US, Australia and other nations were likely to be involved in Afghanistan "for the foreseeable future".

He said: "There is a real concern about what has been a slow deterioration in Afghanistan. There is concern about leakage from Pakistan. This is a big issue for Australia because I don't think anyone wants to see terrorist training camps re-established in that part of the world. There is not a single major US presidential candidate that has a negative word to say about the need to stay in Afghanistan."

On Iraq, Mr Richardson said the US debate was "more complex" than it seemed. "There is no major presidential candidate on either side that seeks a complete withdrawal of US military forces from Iraq," he said.

"All major candidates from the Democrats and Republicans consider there will be a need for a significant US military engagement for quite some time. The differences are in respect of how long combat troops should be left in Iraq.

"There is agreement across the spectrum that the US should remain militarily engaged in Iraq to fight 'international terrorism', that's in and around Ambar province. There is agreement across the spectrum that the US should remain involved in training the Iraq security forces and should remain involved in providing logistic and other support. There is agreement across the spectrum that the US should assist with border security. And there is agreement across the spectrum that the US should have a ready response capability which would enable US forces to come to the assistance of other US forces if they run into problems."

Depending on how the numbers were done, this meant forces in the range of 40,000-80,000 through 2009.

Mr Richardson said there was a "wide diversity" of views about the conduct of the Iraq war. The main concern revolved about the question: are our troops involved in a civil war? On the prospect of US defeat in Iraq there was a concern this "could have wider regional implications".

Mr Richardson said there was "an evident pragmatism" in Bush's second term that had been missed by many commentators who remained "mesmerised" by the decisions of his first term. US policy towards Iran, North Korea and relations with China were evidence of this pragmatism.

While Iraq and the Middle East were taking up the political oxygen, the Bush administration's record in Asia was impressive.

"Over the last few years, the US has improved its bilateral relationship with each of China, Japan and India," Mr Richardson said. "I think you would have got long odds a few years back on that happening. And that set of trans-Pacific relationships determine the strategic environment in which Australia lives."